Strategies that can help Florida Governor compete with Mr. Trump

To compete with Mr. Trump on the race to the White House, Governor DeSantis is aiming to convince conservative voters, although this is a huge challenge.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced on May 24 that he was running for president after months of speculation. With his financial strength and growing national influence, he quickly emerged as a leading rival to former president Donald Trump on the Republican race track.

But he still has a lot of work to do. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last month showed Trump with 49% of Republican support, while Governor DeSantis had only 19%.

According to Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster, voters are divided into three segments, with pro-Trump conservatives making up about 30-35%, and anti-Trump voters making up about 10. %, the rest is a group of moderate voters who have not yet made a clear decision.

Analysts say that if DeSantis wants to beat Trump to win the Republican nomination for the White House race, DeSantis will have to convince anti-Trump voters to support him.

But even with success with that, his victory remains uncertain. DeSantis will have to find a way to appeal to conservative voters who once fervently supported Trump to turn away from the former president in the 2024 election.

"DeSantis couldn't win the Republican nomination with votes from people who didn't support Trump in the first place," said Sarah Isgur, who has supported the campaigns of many Republican presidential candidates. review. "He has to convince a lot of people in the MAGA world to move away from Trump."

MAGA is an acronym for "Make America Great Again," a movement that brings together conservatives who support Trump. This continues to be considered the largest support force with Mr. Trump in the election next year.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis speaks at an event in Maryland in April. Photo: Reuters

Ayres believes that Governor DeSantis is looking for a way to convince MAGA voters to leave Trump, causing the former president's support base to seriously decline, instead of targeting the uncertain group.

Another option Ayres suggested is that DeSantis should try to convince voters looking for a new face of the Republican Party that he is the right man.

Chris Stirewalt, a Republican analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, agrees with this strategy, noting that Governor DeSantis first needs to build a solid base of support among voters who are not closely connected. with former President Trump, before expanding his reach to more difficult voters.

"He needs a solid launch pad first," Stirewalt said.

However, DeSantis' recent moves suggest that the Florida Governor seems to have chosen to convince the party's most conservative voters, who are most likely to stay with former president Trump, despite his fears. concerns of some donors and potential supporters.

As Florida's governor, he signed one of the nation's strictest abortion-restricting bills earlier this year and made it easier for people to carry weapons. He also said that the effort to support Ukraine was not in the national interest of the US, but then had to withdraw this comment in the face of a wave of fierce criticism.

And Governor DeSantis' past disagreements with Walt Disney, one of Florida's most labor-intensive businesses, have also unsettled many traditional Republicans who favor a non-interventionist approach. participate in corporate governance.

Governor DeSantis got into a heated argument with Walt Disney last year when the company criticized a Florida bill that would ban teaching about sexual orientation and gender identity in kindergarten through third grade.

Mr. DeSantis then signed a law nullifying Disney's development agreements in the city of Orlando. The company sued the Florida government in federal court for the action, accusing the governor of targeting them with political motives.

However, according to observers, such policies will help Governor Desantis in the primaries, thwarting any attempt by Trump to portray him as a Republican "puppet". .

In a phone call with donors last week, DeSantis also expressed confidence when he announced that former President Trump would have a hard time defeating Democratic President Joe Biden and that he was the only one who could. won both the Republican primaries and the general election.

An analysis of recent polling data by Reuters/Ipsos found that Governor DeSantis' core voters skewed toward college-educated older adults living in the suburbs, while the strength of Gov. Former President Trump comes from a younger, less educated group of voters.

The poll also showed that the former US president dominated the rural Republican group with 53% compared with 19% for DeSantis. But the gap is narrowing in the suburbs, where Trump has 44% support from Republicans compared with 21% for DeSantis.

Voters who side with Governor Florida are also more likely to want the United States to continue to strongly support Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, not believe the 2020 election was rigged, and strongly oppose progressive policies. such as anti-discrimination regulation or the teaching of Critical Racial Theory in schools, arguing that America's problem of racism is systemic.

One bright spot on Governor DeSantis' path is the fact that former president Trump is embroiled in a series of legal troubles, significantly clouding his election prospects.

Former US President Donald Trump speaks at an event in Columbia, South Carolina, January 28. Photo: AFP

But can DeSantis succeed with its strategy? Strategist Isgur doubts this because the support base of former president Trump is still very strong. "I'm not sure it's possible," she said.

To further strengthen his chances of winning, Governor DeSantis may need to set up behind-the-scenes arrangements to ensure other Republican presidential candidates abandon the campaign and turn to him.

DeSantis can be confident that he has the financial resources to do this. The Never Back Down political action committee, which now backs him, raised more than $30 million in its first month of campaigning. And DeSantis still has more than $80 million left from his gubernatorial campaign.

The committee intends to prioritize spending money on hiring staff, door-to-door persuasion and calling each voter, rather than pouring all the money into advertising.

However, Mike Murphy, a veteran Republican strategist, said money or manpower can only play a part and that success will ultimately depend on Governor DeSantis himself.

"If he's not actively doing campaign tours and meeting with voters, he's not going to be able to make a wide-ranging impact," Murphy noted.